Denying Antecedents and Affirming Consequents : the State of the Art
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چکیده
Recent work on conditional reasoning argues that denying the antecedent [DA] and affirming the consequent [AC] are defeasible but cogent patterns of argument, either because they are effective, rational, albeit heuristic applications of Bayesian probability, or because they are licensed by the principle of total evidence. Against this, we show that on any prevailing interpretation of indicative conditionals the premises of DA and AC arguments do not license their conclusions without additional assumptions. The cogency of DA and AC inferences rather depends on contingent factors extrinsic to, and independent of, what is asserted by DA and AC arguments. Résumé: Des publications récentes sur les raisonnements conditionnels qui emploient la négation de l’antécédent [NA] et l’affirmation du conséquent [AC] soutiennent que ce sont des formes de raisonnement logiquement critiquables mais probantes, soit parce qu’elles sont des applications efficaces, rationnelles, quoique heuristiques, de la probabilité bayésienne, ou soit parce qu’elles sont autorisées par le principe de preuve totale. Face à cela, nous montrons que selon une interprétation prédominante des phrases conditionnelles indicatives, les deux prémisses des arguments NA et AC n’appuient pas leurs conclusions sans des prémisses supplémentaires. Le bien-fondé ces arguments dépend plutôt de facteurs contingents extrinsèques et indépendants de ce qui est avancé par des arguments DA et AC
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تاریخ انتشار 2015